http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

'A post-Brexit UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise and still fail, the UK's top diplomat in Brussels has privately told the government.

The BBC understands Sir Ivan Rogers warned ministers that the European consensus was that a deal might not be done until the early to mid-2020s.'

Only good things can come from this.

Seems to be something of a trend...

Already on Capitol Hill they're talking about how the "Repeal and Replace" of ObamaCare is actually going to be "Repeal and Delay" -- meaning that the GOP congress will pass a law declaring it repealed (and do a victory dance), but will actually leave it in place until after the 2020 election.

Similarly, all EU law is to be rolled into UK law.

If it does take anywhere close to 10 years, the predictions before Brexit for how bad it could get are going to look grossly underestimated.

>>3
In that case Sir Ivan clearly isn't up to the job. Sack him, appoint another top diplomat and we should be out in another couple of years.

And a bit further down the article:

"In October, Sir Ivan ... advised ministers that the view of the 27 other countries was that a free trade agreement could take as long as a decade"

It is not just his opinion, so it's doubtful if replacing him would achieve much.

Have a look at the May interview at the top of the page if you have a moment: her avoidance of the 10 year question is classic.

That's a FREE trade deal. Not a trade deal. It's clear there will be provisional deals in practise way way before finalising a FREE DEAL due to fishing waters and other commodities. Rather than straight WTO dealings

And the quote from the OP again:

"A post-Brexit UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise..."

No mention of [b]"free"[/b] there!

And more opinions from the article:

'Former cabinet secretary Sir Gus O'Donnell predicted negotiating a final deal would take "at least five years"'

'Lord Mandelson predicted "between five and 10 years" was the most likely timescale, telling a committee of MPs that after a deal is reached on the UK's exit terms, talks on trade arrangements would be harder and take longer'

UKIP will make big gains if the Tories screw up Brexit. You heard it here first. I'm that savvy!

It's hard to see it going well.

>>9
Especially if you want to re-run the referendum until you get the answer you want.

>>10
Lol ^ this.

The actual Brexit is unlikely to go well, not anything else leading up to it. I do not support a 2nd referendum, btw.

Its just another trade opportunity for Trump.

The USA is about 14% of UK export so is significant, but EU countries are 53%.

but EU countries are 53%.

No, they are now down to 44% and dropping fast. The UK is one of only two countries in the EU which exports more outside the EU than inside it.

My figures were from 2015, which is the last full year. What is your source for the 9% drop since then please?

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
God knows where you got your figures from. They look more like they are from 2005 rather than 2015.

>>17
Wait... I think you confused it with the percentage of our imports which come from the EU.

Thanks, that doesn't change my point about the USA though: it is significant but not our largest concern.

it is significant but not our largest concern.

Only if you regard the EU as a single country. If you don't, then the US is indeed our 'largest concern' in terms of being the country which currently imports more of our goods and services than any other single country.

I'm gonna have to disagree. Pretty much anything would have been preferable to that display of avoidance. She could have gone for a Blairism like "I am confident it will be finished in a timely manner" or a Cameronism like "We are working hard towards a solution and will have more to say on this shortly". But no: change the subject and scuttle away VERY QUICKLY to avoid follow-ups. She couldn't have done worse.

maybe - yes but then you invite a million other questions. once a politician answers an actual question that is!! that gets them into a pickle .

I know enough to not need to hear her say anything on the matter.

We'll have to agree to differ then.

This Brexit is too slow.